Marketplace of Ideas Blog

Why is today such a gloomy morning? Is it the fact the sun apparently did not come up this morning? Is it the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below 10,000 this morning?

No, I’d say there are three reasons. Their names are Badgers, Brewers and Packers.

BADgers: A team that supposedly was a contender for the Big Ten title now isn’t thanks to losing two games they should not have lost — to a rebuilding Michigan team last week and to Ohio State at (supposedly) intimidating Camp Randall Stadium Saturday night.

The atmosphere at Camp Randall was dampened by the lack of the University of Wisconsin Marching Band — which, you’ll recall, occupied most of my college time — suspended due to incidents that allegedly took place during the band’s road trip to Michigan one week earlier.

I’m not going to criticize director Michael Leckrone for his decision to suspend the entire band. It did, however, have the unintended consequence of punishing the 80,000-plus who attended the game Saturday, and made the atmosphere less threatening for Ohio State, which pulled out the win with 1:08 remaining. (It also got mention throughout ABC-TV’s broadcast, which is just embarrassing.)

The investigation needs to be speedy. UW hosts Penn State on ESPN Saturday night.

Packers: Maybe Time Warner Cable knew what it was doing when it pulled WLUK-TV (channel 11) off their system, thus preventing subscribers from having to endure Sunday’s 27–24 loss to Atlanta, a team that had not even scored a touchdown on the road before Sunday.

Unfortunately, my prediction that the Packers would crash back to earth this season is coming true, although it has less to do with new quarterback Aaron Rodgers than with the rest of the team, specifically their inability to run the ball (23rd in rushing) and their inability to stop … well, anything, as in a defense ranked 25th in yardage, 27th against the run, 13th against the pass (which is less significant because teams that discovered their inability to stop the run are running against them), and 26th in scoring.

The worse problem is that the most rugged part of their schedule is coming up, a stretch where the Packers could see their three-game losing streak get much longer — at Seattle, against Indianapolis (and Peyton Manning), at (currently undefeated) Tennessee, at Minnesota, against Chicago (which now is in first place in the NFC North), at New Orleans and against Carolina. Those teams are a collective 18–13, and given where those games are (Seattle is 1–3, but the game is at Seattle, a tough place to play; Minnesota is 1–4, but the game is in the Metrodome), the Packers could conceivably lose all of them.

Brewers: Well, the postseason was fun while it lasted, until it ended with Philadelphia’s 6–2 win Sunday, clinching the 3-games-to-1 National League Division Series.

It may feel like 1981, the first time the Brewers made the playoffs, but it’s not. The 1981 team felt as though it was coming into its own, though it took a midseason managerial change to ignite the team to a World Series berth.

This year’s team has too many subtractions and holes that have to be filled before you slot them into the 2009 World Series. Pitcher CC Sabathia says he wouldn’t mind coming back, but I can think of $everal rea$on$ he won’t return in 2009. When your owner says that “The numbers you hear for a player like CC start to approach what we pay the team,” that’s a bad sign.

Sabathia, who probably won’t be back, and pitcher Ben Sheets, who definitely won’t be back for the $ame rea$on$, are two holes on the starting rotation that will have to be filled. Beyond that, this is a team with some fundamental problems, including defense (the Brewers were 17th in baseball in fielding, and only 10 teams had more errors than the Brewers, and neither stat counts balls players couldn’t get to due to limited range of some of their players) and hitting (the Brewers were 25th in batting average, 21st in on-base percentage and ninth in striking out, and they were as high as 17th in runs scored only because they were fifth in home runs).

This insight came to me earlier this season, strangely enough during my son’s marathon baseball season. It shouldn’t be a surprise that eight-year-olds are not necessarily great in baseball fundamentals, but during one particular bad moment not long after I had seen bad fundamentals displayed by the local high school baseball team, it hit me: Young baseball players learn from major leaguers, and the Brewers aren’t necessarily a good team at fundamentals, as the strikeout and defense totals show. (Perhaps I should find tapes of the Houston Astros, who led baseball in fielding percentage and had the lowest error total, and the Boston Red Sox, who led baseball in on-base percentage and walks, for Michael to watch this offseason.)

What carried this team was something that has almost never been a Brewers strength — pitching; the Brewers were fourth in earned run average and sixth in runs given up, which is pretty incredible to contemplate given that their good seasons usually featured bludgeoning their opponents (a team called Harvey’s Wallbangers wouldn’t usually be known for pitching) over the fine art of preventing them from scoring. (The 1982 Brewers, the only Brewers team to get to the World Series, was first in the American League in runs scored, first in home runs and sixth in earned run average, and were above average defensively.

The Brewers need to get better for 2009, particularly on offense, and particularly in being able to generate offense other than by home runs. Getting an actual leadoff hitter (every team has a leadoff hitter, but the Brewers never had anyone who could combine a high on-base percentage and ability to steal bases) and a hitter who can hit for average (their best hitter for average this season was left fielder Ryan Braun, who hit just .285, which is much lower than you want batting third in the order) goes along with needing to replace Sabathia and Sheets. Don’t be surprised if the Brewers end up trading away first baseman Prince Fielder, who despite being second on the team in home runs and runs batted in, is below average defensively and, shall we say, has the body that is destined to be an American League designated hitter.

Sorry to pour gloom on top of your gloom, but there it is.